In a surprising development, Somalia, a country long regarded as a strategic partner of the West, has recently embarked on a significant shift in its foreign policy, leaning towards forging closer ties with Russia.
This unexpected move has raised eyebrows and sparked intense speculation about the underlying factors that have prompted Somalia’s newfound alignment. This analysis aims to present the reasons behind Somalia’s decision to embrace Russia and explore the potential implications of this geopolitical realignment.
Perceived Betrayal by the West
According to experts, Somalia’s decision to seek closer ties with Russia can be traced back to a growing sense of disillusionment and perceived betrayal by its traditional Western partners.
For years, Somalia has relied on Western nations, particularly the United States and its European allies, for military support, economic aid and diplomatic backing.
However, the new administration has increasingly felt let down by the limited support and attention it has received from the West in addressing its pressing security and development challenges.
In recent years, the country has struggled to combat the menace of Al-Shabaab, a militant extremist group that has destabilized the country and impeded its progress towards stability.
Despite Somalia’s efforts to combat terrorism and establish a strong functioning government, the West’s response has been criticized by the government for its perceived lack of commitment and insufficient resources. According to senior Somali official, this perceived neglect and an increasing feeling of abandonment by Western powers have left Somalia seeking alternative partnerships.
GEOPOLITICAL CALCULATIONS
The new alignment shift was characterized by a surprising visit by Somalia’s Foreign Minister to Moscow on Friday and caught the media attention during a meeting with Russia’s veteran Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
In a joint announcement made after their hour-long talks, the two ministers declared that their countries have restored diplomatic relations and agreed to collaborate on various fronts.
As part of their deal, Russia expressed a willingness to assist Somalia in clearing its significant debt arrears in exchange for forging closer ties between the two nations, according to sources privy with the talks.
The unexpected shift towards Russia by Somalia caught many, including the United States, off guard.
However, several Western diplomats, who spoke to the Horn Examiner on the condition of anonymity, insisted that while they were surprised by the timing of the shift, they were not entirely shocked given President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s previous unsuccessful attempts to align with Russia during his initial term.
One such attempt occurred in 2016 when then-Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke visited Moscow, resulting in an agreement between Somalia and Russia to foster closer ties and cooperate in several areas such as security.
But those efforts fell through thanks to intense pressure from Western nations, particularly the United States which prompted President Mohamud to abandon the deal with Russia, leaving it unfulfilled.
Somalia’s new realignment of foreign policy comes on the backdrop of President Mohamud’s recent secret trip to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a country that has recently shifted its alignment from the United States to Russia.
The President’s visit to the UAE which included meetings with the President of UAE and the ruler of Abu Dhabi, Mohamed Bin Zayed followed two separate visits to Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Consequently, the sudden alliance between Somalia and Russia, as well as the President’s resistance to restore diplomatic ties with Iran, are widely seen to have been influenced by the UAE.
WAGNER GROUP’S POTENTIAL INVOLVEMENT
For Moscow, forging closer ties with Somalia presents an opportunity to to have a presence in the Horn of Africa, gain access to strategic ports in the region and counterbalance Western influence, primarily the U.S.
Somalia, on the other hand, sees in Russia a potential ally that is willing to provide the military support it needs to combat terrorism, as well as financial aid for its reconstruction efforts.
However, Somalia’s new overture raised possibility of future Russia’s involvement in the country, especially through the controversial Wagner Group and the use of mercenaries, therefore attracting immediate international attention.
The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, has been linked to various conflicts and operations across Africa, often with devastating consequences, with their possible future presence in Somalia raises concerns about the destabilization of the region and potential human rights abuses.
Security experts warn that Somalia’s decision to forge an alliance with Russia, despite its track record of employing questionable tactics in African countries, could have unintended consequences, potentially resulting in collateral damage for Somalia.
This concern arises from the fact that Somalia heavily depends on the support of Western nations, with the United States being a key ally and significant donor for the country’s development and security initiatives. Most recently, the EU have released a 20.5 million budgetary support for Federal Government of Somalia.
The United States has been instrumental in providing military and financial assistance to Somalia to combat terrorism, but Somalia’s growing proximity to Russia risks straining this crucial relationship. The United States and other Western powers may view Somalia’s alignment with the Kremlin as a betrayal or a shift towards an adversarial stance, regional officials say.
RUSSIA’S AFRICA TRACK RECORD
At the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union stood as a reliable supporter of numerous African nations, such as Somalia and Ethiopia, both of which had embraced socialism. However, the trajectory of history took a significant turn with the outbreak of the Ogaden war between these neighboring countries in 1977.
Nonetheless, in recent years, the Russian Federation has renewed its engagement with Africa, fostering substantial diplomatic interactions through its first high-profile Summit held in Moscow on 23-24 October 2019 and involving 43 African Heads of State and Government.
Meanwhile , Russia’s aggressive policies in Africa have drawn significant criticism from the international community. By aligning itself closely with a nation known for controversial military interventions and the use of mercenaries, Somalia also risks losing the trust and support of other African nations who have also been affected by Russia’s actions.
Russia’s willingness to engage with Somalia on these fronts has been a crucial factor in solidifying the emerging partnership.
According to Ahmed Abdullahi, a Somali political analyst, the new bold pivot to Russia by Somalia signals beneath-the-surface tensions with the United States, a move seen as a response, mainly to the lack of effective support from the West in countering the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab.
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS
While Somalia’s pivot towards Russia may offer short-term benefits in terms of security and economic assistance, experts suggest that it also raises concerns about the long-term consequences.
The West has been a vital partner in supporting Somalia’s state-building efforts, humanitarian aid, and promoting democratic governance, with a shift away from these established relationships could result in the loss of substantial financial aid, diplomatic support and access to Western markets.
Furthermore, aligning with Russia may come with its own set of challenges. Russia’s track record on democracy, human rights, and good governance has been a subject of international scrutiny.
However, Somalia’s decision to cozy up to Moscow in an apparent recalibration of its foreign policy may risk undermining its own efforts to foster democratic institutions and improve governance, potentially leading to a regression in progress made so far.
Another element that officials suggested might have contributed to the shift towards Russia is Somalia’s desire for more equitable partnerships.
The Somali government has long felt that its relationships with Western countries have been one-sided, with the West exerting significant influence and control over Somali affairs. By turning to Russia, Somalia aims to diversify its foreign relations and establish a more balanced approach.
According to key insiders at the Villa Somalia, the country’s State House, Russia’s geopolitical influence, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, presents an opportunity for Somalia to assert its independence and pursue its own strategic interests.
POTENTIAL FOR PROXY CONFLICTS
Somalia’s decision to align with Russia marks a significant shift in its foreign policy, which had traditionally leaned toward Western countries and regional allies.
This move can be seen as a response to the changing dynamics in the Horn of Africa, where traditional alliances are being reevaluated. However, this realignment could lead to a power struggle in the region as Somalia’s traditional partners may view the Russian presence as a threat to their interests.
The unexpected shift risks could have profound implications for regional security.
Somalia is struggling with a long-running insurgency by Al-Shabaab and the involvement of an external power like Russia could complicate the ongoing efforts to combat terrorism.
The new Somalia’s alignment with Russia which could pave way for Moscow to gain a foothold into the horn of Africa region, including Somalia raises concerns about potential proxy conflicts in the region.
Given Russia’s involvement in conflicts such as Syria and Ukraine, there is a fear that Somalia could become a new battleground for competing interests, a scenario which could exacerbate existing internal divisions within Somalia and escalate tensions between regional powers vying for influence.
IMPACT ON GLOBAL DIPLOMACY
In contrast to its neighboring countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Somalia had consistently shown alignment with the West by voting in favor of western-backed resolutions at the UN Security Council, condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
The Somalia-Russia alignment risks have implications for broader international relations. Western countries, especially the United States, will likely be worried over possible Russia’s expanding influence in strategic regions, a development which could strain Somalia’s relationships with its traditional partners, leading to a potential isolation of the country and affecting future diplomatic engagements.
While Somalia has been seeking assistance to rebuild its nation, the choice to align with Russia has raised eyebrows due to the country’s complex geopolitical dynamics, analysts say.
Furthermore, there are concerns about the economic implications of this alignment. While Russia possesses vast natural resources and technological capabilities, it is also known for its strategic resource exploitation and sometimes controversial business practices.
Experts warn that Somalia’s fragile economy could become vulnerable to exploitation and unequal partnerships, potentially exacerbating existing socio-economic challenges.
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